Ghanaians can expect some relief at the pumps in June 2025, as fuel prices are projected to decrease by 5% to 9%, according to a new report from the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC).
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What’s Behind the Predicted Fuel Price Drop?
ASEC attributes the expected reduction to the strengthening of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar, which has made petroleum product imports cheaper for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs). This development could provide short-term economic relief to both households and businesses.
“Because petroleum imports are dollar-denominated, a stronger cedi means lower procurement costs for oil marketing companies, which should translate into reduced prices at the pumps,” ASEC said in a statement.
Projected Fuel Prices for June 2025
In its latest market update, ASEC forecasts the following fuel price ranges across Ghana:
- Petrol: GHS 12.00 – 12.60 per litre
- Diesel: GHS 12.60 – 13.20 per litre
These new rates are expected to take effect in the first pricing window of June, following the bi-weekly fuel pricing model used in the country.
How the Cedi’s Performance Affects Fuel Pricing
Ghana’s fuel pricing is largely influenced by three major factors:
- Global crude oil prices
- Exchange rate movements
- Import and logistics costs
While international crude oil prices have fallen from $85 per barrel in January to around $64, ASEC noted that the primary driver of the current fuel price forecast is the Ghana cedi’s recent appreciation.
Economic Benefits and Potential Trade-Offs
A reduction in fuel prices is expected to:
- Lower transportation costs
- Help control headline inflation
- Provide economic relief amid rising living costs
However, there are downsides. ASEC warned that Ghana, as a net exporter of crude oil, could suffer a drop in export earnings due to the global oil price slump, which is now over 24% lower than it was at the start of the year.
“Unless these declines are purely exchange rate-driven, lower global prices typically result in reduced state revenue,” ASEC cautioned.
“The government may need to ramp up production volumes to offset shortfalls.”
Oil Market Outlook: Stable but Fragile
ASEC predicts that global oil prices will likely remain within the $62–$65 range for the foreseeable future. This is due to:
- Increased supply from OPEC+ member countries
- Weakening demand from major economies such as the United States and China
ASEC’s Recommendations for Policy Makers
ASEC is advising the government of Ghana to balance short-term consumer relief with long-term energy security and fiscal stability. The think tank emphasized the need for sustainable pricing strategies and evidence-based policy decisions to navigate the current economic environment.
Conclusion: What Ghanaians Should Expect
As Ghana continues its economic recovery, the anticipated reduction in fuel prices for June 2025 provides a welcome boost to consumer confidence. However, the long-term impact will depend on both the strength of the cedi and global oil market trends.
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